The Ghana cedi — what it's done, what's driving it, what to watch.
Multi-year performance vs the currencies that matter, peer comparison across African currencies, structural drivers, and the episodes that shaped the current exchange rate.
- YTD
- -4.2%
- 1Y
- -5.8%
- 3Y
- -27.1%
- 5Y
- -53.9%
- 10Y
- -64.8%
Negative numbers mean the cedi weakened against USD. Sign convention: change in cedi purchasing power, not change in the quoted rate.
- YTD
- -5.1%
- 1Y
- -6.2%
- 3Y
- -29.4%
- 5Y
- -55.1%
- 10Y
- -52.1%
Negative numbers mean the cedi weakened against GBP. Sign convention: change in cedi purchasing power, not change in the quoted rate.
- YTD
- -4.0%
- 1Y
- -5.5%
- 3Y
- -28.0%
- 5Y
- -51.8%
- 10Y
- -54.4%
Negative numbers mean the cedi weakened against EUR. Sign convention: change in cedi purchasing power, not change in the quoted rate.
- YTD
- +1.4%
- 1Y
- +2.8%
- 3Y
- +18.2%
- 5Y
- +29.5%
- 10Y
- +32.0%
Negative numbers mean the cedi weakened against NGN. Sign convention: change in cedi purchasing power, not change in the quoted rate.
- YTD
- -2.8%
- 1Y
- -3.9%
- 3Y
- -19.8%
- 5Y
- -40.2%
- 10Y
- -39.1%
Negative numbers mean the cedi weakened against XOF. Sign convention: change in cedi purchasing power, not change in the quoted rate.
- YTD
- -2.1%
- 1Y
- -2.4%
- 3Y
- -12.0%
- 5Y
- -18.7%
- 10Y
- -6.2%
Negative numbers mean the cedi weakened against ZAR. Sign convention: change in cedi purchasing power, not change in the quoted rate.
10-year cedi trajectory
Monthly end-of-period rate. Indexed to 100 at the start of the series.
REER measures the cedi against a trade-weighted basket adjusted for inflation differentials. An index below 100 means the cedi is cheaper in real terms than the base year — i.e. exports look competitive and imports look expensive.
How to read the REER
- • REER falling = cedi losing real value → good for exporters, bad for households buying imports.
- • REER rising = cedi gaining real value → worse for exporters, better for real wages.
- • Nominal and real can disagree — a nominally stable cedi with 20% inflation and 3% US inflation is losing competitiveness fast.
What's driving the cedi
Gold for reserves programme
Supports cediBoG's domestic gold-purchase programme converts gold production into FX reserves, reducing structural dollar demand. Adds months of import cover without drawing on the balance of payments.
Cocoa export receipts
Supports cediCocoa remains supportive at elevated global prices. Strong main-crop volumes from the 2025/26 season are feeding export proceeds via Cocobod.
IMF programme tranche disbursements
Supports cediIMF Extended Credit Facility tranches anchor FX expectations and unlock World Bank + AfDB budget support. Each review passed reduces risk premia.
Diaspora remittances
Supports cediRemittances run at roughly USD 4.6 billion annualised, a persistent source of FX inflow that is broadly counter-cyclical to domestic shocks.
Import demand (oil + machinery)
Pressures cediCrude oil, refined petroleum, and capital goods remain the largest structural dollar-demand lines. Any Brent spike flows into the trade balance with a one-to-three-month lag.
Election-cycle spending
Pressures cediFiscal expansion in election years historically widens the current-account gap and raises implied FX pressure. Markets watch budget execution vs target closely.
Domestic interest rates
Two-sidedHigh cedi rates (T-bill ≈ 25-27%) attract offshore carry traders in risk-on phases and deter them in risk-off. Rate cuts would ease debt service but may weaken the cedi.
The cedi vs African peers (last 12 months)
| Currency | Country | 1y move vs USD | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| NGN | Nigeria | -42.5% | Naira depreciated sharply after the June 2023 float. Stabilising since 2025 Q3. Cedi has outperformed the naira on a 1-year basis. |
| XOF | BRVM (CFA franc) | -5.1% | Pegged to the euro. Tracks EUR/USD moves. Cedi has depreciated against it over the long run reflecting Ghana's structural inflation gap. |
| ZAR | South Africa | -2.4% | Most liquid African currency. Moves with global risk appetite, commodities (especially gold and platinum), and SARB policy. |
| KES | Kenya | -1.6% | Kenyan shilling stabilised in 2024-25 after large IMF programme drawdowns. CBK foreign reserves have rebuilt. |
| EGP | Egypt | -38.2% | Large 2024 devaluation as part of the IMF deal. Still among the most depreciated frontier currencies in the last 24 months. |
Comparisons are indicative. Each currency operates under different regimes (managed float, crawling peg, free float) — raw depreciation numbers understate the underlying volatility for some names.
The episodes that shaped today's rate
- 2022 Q3 – 2023 Q1
The GHS 50% depreciation shock
Cedi lost roughly half its value as reserves collapsed, Eurobond market access closed, and credit ratings were cut. Precipitated the IMF programme and the DDEP.
- 2023 Q2 – 2024
Stabilisation phase
IMF staff-level agreement, first tranche disbursement, and initial reserve rebuild. Cedi traded a narrow range around GHS 11.5 to the dollar through much of 2024.
- 2025
Disinflation and policy-rate peak
Headline CPI began sustained decline from a 54% peak. BoG's monetary policy rate held at 29% for most of the year before a small cut late in Q4.
- 2026 YTD
Moderate depreciation resumes
Cedi down ~4% YTD vs USD. Drivers include gold-price retracement earlier in Q1 and seasonal election-cycle import demand. Reserves still climbing on cocoa inflows.
What investors can take away
- • Over 10 years the cedi has lost roughly 65% vs USD. Nominal GHS returns that don't beat that are flat-to-negative in dollar terms.
- • Diaspora investors should benchmark against their currency of record, not GHS.
- • Long-cedi exposure pays more when reserve coverage is > 3 months of imports and the IMF programme is on track.
- • Exporters (cocoa, gold, palm oil) are the natural hedges on the GSE.
What policy-makers and analysts can take away
- • The gold-for-reserves programme and cocoa export flows are the two largest cedi-supportive structural forces — both can be accelerated.
- • Election-cycle fiscal expansion is reliably followed by cedi weakness. Pre-commitment mechanisms (a fiscal rule with teeth) reduce the premium markets price in.
- • High real rates attract hot-money flows but crowd out private credit. The cedi benefit is fragile.
- • A 10-year 65% depreciation vs USD is a measure of compounded policy drift, not a market failure. Anchoring inflation is the single most powerful cedi-support tool available.
Sources: Bank of Ghana interbank rates, IMF Article IV consultations, World Bank Africa Pulse, and public data from AfDB and Ghana Statistical Service. All percentage moves are indicative and subject to revision as underlying series update.